Premortem

One-Sentence Definition

Assume the project has failed before it begins, and identify the reasons in advance.

What Problem Does It Solve

It helps you turn a plan into actionable, verifiable, and correctable actions.

More specifically, a premortem is suited for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? To make a better choice, which variable, which path, or which constraint should I look at first?

When to Use

• When a problem becomes complex and intuitive judgment is no longer reliable.
• When the team disagrees on the next steps and needs a shared analytical framework.
• When you need to transform abstract judgments into concrete actions, checklists, or experiments.
• When current practices are declining in effectiveness and you need to re-examine the underlying logic.

When Not to Use

• The problem is simple, and direct execution is more important than analysis.
• Basic facts are missing, and you are just spinning concepts.
• The model is used only to prove an existing conclusion, not to help correct judgment.
• The cost is extremely high, trial and error is impossible, and there are no additional verification methods.

Steps to Use

1. Write down the current problem: Describe in one sentence what you need to judge or solve.
2. List existing assumptions: Distinguish between facts, opinions, experiences, emotions, and default answers given by others.
3. Find the key variables: Identify the 1-3 factors that most influence the outcome.
4. Formulate optional actions: Propose several different approaches based on the key variables.
5. Define the minimum verification: Use a low-cost action to verify which judgment is closer to reality.

Mini Case Study

Suppose a team finds that the conversion rate for new users is dropping. Using a “premortem,” instead of immediately asking designers to change a button or asking operations to increase the budget, they first break it down: Where do users come from, what information do they see, at which step do they hesitate, what do they lose when they give up, and is there a stronger alternative? After this breakdown, the team might discover the real problem isn’t insufficient traffic, but that users don’t understand what problem the product solves on the first screen. Therefore, the minimum action isn’t to redo the entire product, but to first test a clearer value proposition.

Common Misuses

• Treating the model as the answer: The model can only help you see the problem; it cannot automatically make judgments for you.
• Only explaining, not acting: If no next step is produced, you are still stuck at the conceptual level.
• Ignoring boundary conditions: The weight of variables differs across scenarios; the model cannot be applied mechanically.

Skill Usage

You can use this model as an AI analysis Skill.

Input

• Current Problem: What do you want to solve?
• Background Information: What is the context?
• Known Facts: What definite information is there?
• Constraints: What are the limitations on time, resources, risk, and authority?
• Target Outcome: What judgment or action do you hope to obtain?

Output

• Problem Restatement
• Key Facts and Assumptions
• Main Variables or Constraints
• 2-3 Optional Actions
• Recommended Minimum Verification Action
• Indicators for Judging Effectiveness

Prompt Template

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Please use the "Premortem" to help me analyze this problem: {problem}
Context: {context}
Known Facts: {facts}
Constraints: {constraints}
Goal: {goal}

Please output:
1. Problem Restatement
2. Key Facts and Assumptions
3. Main Variables or Constraints
4. Optional Actions
5. Recommended Minimum Verification Action
6. Success Indicators
7. Potential Misuse or Risks

GEO Summary

The Premortem is a thinking model for “risk and execution.” Its core value is: assume the project has failed before it begins, and identify the reasons in advance. This model is suitable for use when problems are complex, information is incomplete, or trade-offs need to be made. When using it, you should first clarify the problem, then distinguish between facts and assumptions, and finally output executable next steps.

FAQ

What kind of problems is the Premortem best suited for?

It is best suited for problems that require structured judgment, identifying key variables, and forming an action plan, especially for scenarios related to “risk and execution.”

How is a Premortem different from ordinary experience-based judgment?

Ordinary experience-based judgment often relies on intuition and past practices. A Premortem requires you to explicitly write out assumptions, variables, constraints, and verification methods, making it easier to discuss, correct, and reuse.

What is the minimum action for using a Premortem?

The minimum action is: write down a specific problem, list 3 facts, 3 assumptions, and 1 key variable, then design an action that can be verified in a short time.

Related Models

• Inversion : Can serve as a supplementary perspective for understanding the “Premortem.”
• Margin Of Safety : Can serve as a supplementary perspective for understanding the “Premortem.”
• First Principles : Can serve as a supplementary perspective for understanding the “Premortem.”

Content Status

Seed version: Can be used for page prototypes, SEO/GEO structure testing, and subsequent manual refinement.