Mind Model

Mental Models Knowledge Base

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Progressive Disclosure

One-Sentence Definition

Show essential information first, then reveal complex information as needed.

What Problem Does It Solve

It helps you design clearer user paths, choice structures, and information hierarchies.

More specifically, Progressive Disclosure is suited for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? To make a better choice, which variable, path, or constraint should I look at first?

When to Use

  • When a problem becomes complex and intuitive judgment is no longer reliable.
  • When the team disagrees on the next step and needs a shared analytical framework.
  • When you need to turn abstract judgments into concrete actions, checklists, or experiments.
  • When current practices are losing effectiveness and the underlying logic needs re-examination.

When Not to Use

  • The problem is simple, and direct execution is more important than analysis.
  • Basic facts are missing, and you are just spinning concepts.
  • The model is used only to justify existing conclusions, not to help correct judgment.
  • The cost is extremely high, trial and error is impossible, and there are no additional verification methods.

Steps to Use

  1. Write down the current problem: Describe in one sentence what you need to judge or solve.
  2. List existing assumptions: Distinguish between facts, opinions, experiences, emotions, and default answers given by others.
  3. Identify key variables: Find the 1-3 factors that most influence the outcome.
  4. Form actionable options: Propose several different approaches based on the key variables.
  5. Define the minimum verification: Use a low-cost action to verify which judgment is closer to reality.

Mini Case Study

Suppose a team finds that new user conversion rates are declining. Using Progressive Disclosure, instead of immediately asking designers to change a button or asking operations to increase the budget, they first break it down: Where do users come from, what information do they see, at which step do they hesitate, what do they lose when they abandon, and are there stronger alternatives? After the breakdown, the team might discover the real problem is not insufficient traffic, but that users don’t understand what problem the product solves on the first screen. The minimum action, therefore, is not to redesign the entire product, but to first test a clearer value proposition.

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Prospect Theory

One-Sentence Definition

People tend to be risk-averse when facing gains and risk-seeking when facing losses.

Core Concept

Kahneman and Tversky proposed that people’s risk preferences are not fixed—they become conservative when facing gains (certainty effect) and adventurous when facing losses (reflection effect). The value function is S-shaped.

What Problem Does It Solve

When information is incomplete, options are numerous, or risks are unclear, it helps pull your judgment from intuition back to structured analysis.

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Substitute Decision-Making

One-Sentence Definition

Imagine how another person would make a decision when faced with the same problem, thereby stepping out of your own cognitive limitations.

Core Concept

The substitute decision-making method: If the person you admire most were facing this decision, what would they do? Use role-playing to reduce emotional interference.

What Problem Does It Solve

When information is incomplete, options are numerous, or risks are unclear, it helps shift your judgment from intuition to structured analysis.

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Psychological Safety

One-Sentence Definition

Enables team members to freely raise issues, admit mistakes, and express dissenting opinions.

What Problem Does It Solve

It helps teams reduce collaboration friction, aligning goals, incentives, and trust more effectively.

More specifically, psychological safety is suited for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? To make a better choice, which variable, path, or constraint should I examine first?

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Psychology of Human Misjudgment

One-Line Definition

Charlie Munger summarized 25 common human psychological misjudgment tendencies.

Core Concept

In his talks, Munger identified 25 psychological misjudgment tendencies, including incentive‑caused bias, deprivation super‑reaction syndrome, social proof, and others. Understanding these tendencies helps avoid systematic errors in judgment.

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The Pyramid Principle

One-Sentence Definition

State the conclusion first, then support it layer by layer with arguments—like a pyramid, top-down.

Core Concept

Proposed by Barbara Minto of McKinsey: When communicating, state the conclusion/recommendation first, then provide supporting reasons in layers. This aligns with the audience’s natural way of understanding—“big picture first, details later.”

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Reaction Force

One-Sentence Definition

Every action generates a corresponding reaction force that requires anticipation and management.

Core Concept

An extension of Newton’s Third Law: action and reaction are equal in magnitude and opposite in direction. This applies equally in society, business, and interpersonal relationships—strong pushes inevitably produce rebounds.

What Problem It Solves

When information is incomplete, options are numerous, or risks are unclear, it helps pull your judgment from intuition back to structured analysis.

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The Principle of Reciprocity

One-Sentence Definition

People tend to reciprocate the goodwill, help, or concessions of others.

What Problem Does It Solve?

It helps you understand why people don’t always act rationally, and to design better choice environments.

More specifically, the Principle of Reciprocity is suited for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? If I want to make a better choice, which variable, which path, or which constraint should I look at first?

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Redundancy and Backup

One-Sentence Definition

Back up and add redundancy to critical systems to ensure that a single point of failure does not cause a global collapse.

Core Concept

Redundancy and backup involve duplicating critical resources, capabilities, or channels to avoid single points of failure. This applies to engineering, finance, and personal life alike.

What Problem Does It Solve

When information is incomplete, options are numerous, or risks are unclear, it helps shift your judgment from intuition back to structured analysis.

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Reference Class Forecasting

One-Sentence Definition

Use historical outcomes from similar projects to predict the current project, rather than relying solely on internal plans.

What Problem Does It Solve

It helps you turn plans into actionable, verifiable, and adjustable actions.

More specifically, Reference Class Forecasting is suitable for answering questions like: What I am seeing now—is it a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? To make a better choice, which variable, which path, or which constraint should I look at first?

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Mean Reversion

One-Sentence Definition

After an extreme performance, the next outcome tends to be closer to the average.

What Problem Does It Solve

It helps you turn vague problems into clearer judgments, actions, and verification methods.

More specifically, Mean Reversion is suitable for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? If I want to make a better choice, which variable, which path, or which constraint should I look at first?

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Replicability

One-Sentence Definition

Distilling successful experiences into replicable methodologies and processes.

Core Concept

The core of replicability is transforming personal experience and tacit knowledge into explicit, standardized methods and processes that more people can execute.

What Problem Does It Solve

When information is incomplete, options are numerous, or risks are unclear, it helps pull your judgment back from intuition to structured analysis.

More specifically, replicability is suited for answering questions like: How can I better understand the current situation? How can I make more reasonable judgments and take action?

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RICE Priority

One-Sentence Definition

Evaluate opportunity priority using Reach, Impact, Confidence, and Effort.

What Problem Does It Solve

It helps you turn plans into actionable, verifiable, and adjustable actions.

More specifically, RICE Priority is suitable for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? If I want to make a better choice, which variable, which path, and which constraint should I look at first?

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Risk Reversal

One-Sentence Definition

Transfer or reduce the risk for users trying a new solution.

What Problem Does It Solve

It helps you determine how a product is understood, chosen, substituted, and spread.

More specifically, Risk Reversal is suitable for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? If I want to make a better choice, which variable, which path, or which constraint should I look at first?

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Risk-Reward Ratio

Definition in One Sentence

Compares the potential gain of a choice against its potential loss to determine if it is worth taking.

What Problem Does It Solve

When information is incomplete, options are numerous, or risks are unclear, it helps pull your judgment away from intuition and back to structured analysis.

More specifically, the Risk-Reward Ratio is suited for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? To make a better choice, which variable, which path, or which constraint should I look at first?

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Root Cause Analysis

One-Sentence Definition

Tracing from surface symptoms back to the underlying root cause that truly leads to the problem.

What Problem Does It Solve

It helps you transform vague problems into clearer judgments, actions, and verification methods.

More specifically, Root Cause Analysis is suitable for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? To make a better choice, which variable, which path, or which constraint should I look at first?

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Rubber Duck Debugging

One-Sentence Definition

Expose flaws in your thinking and hidden assumptions by explaining a problem to an external object.

What Problem Does It Solve

It helps you transform vague problems into clearer judgments, actions, and verification methods.

More specifically, Rubber Duck Debugging is suited for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? If I want to make a better choice, which variable, which path, or which constraint should I look at first?

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Scarcity

One-Sentence Definition

Limited resources force people to make trade-offs and also influence perceived value.

What Problem Does It Solve

When information is incomplete, options are numerous, or risks are unclear, it helps pull your judgment from intuition back to structured analysis.

More specifically, scarcity is suited for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? If I want to make a better choice, which variable, which path, or which constraint should I look at first?

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Scenario Planning

One-Sentence Definition

Prepare different strategies for several possible futures, rather than betting on just one prediction.

What Problem Does It Solve

Helps you maintain flexibility in uncertain environments, avoiding the trap of betting on a single path.

More specifically, scenario planning is suited for answering questions like: What I am seeing now—is it a fact, an assumption, or a habitual practice? To make a better choice, which variable, which path, and which constraint should I examine first?

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Scientific Method

One-Sentence Definition

Use observation, hypothesis, experimentation, and revision to gradually approach reliable conclusions.

What Problem Does It Solve

It helps you validate key assumptions at a lower cost, avoiding major investments based on intuition.

More specifically, the Scientific Method is suited for answering questions like: Is what I’m seeing a fact, a hypothesis, or a habitual practice? To make a better choice, which variable, path, or constraint should I examine first?